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Sunday, January 26, 2014

Money

Brad McMillan of Commonwealth Financial Network said that economic data besides the jobs report has been positive. He believes the Fed will reduce its purchases by another $10 billion a month. McMillan added that the Fed would only create more market uncertainty if it didn't stick to winding down its program as expected. Some might interpret the lack of further tapering as a sign the Fed thinks the economy has taken a turn for the worse. "The Fed has to give the impression that they know what they're doing and they're in control," he said. "To back off after just one month would signal a lack of conviction in their previous decision." The meeting is also the last one for Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. Current Fed vice chair Janet Yellen will take over the top job in February. Bring on the data: A slew of economic reports will also help investors gauge the state of the economy. The most important will be gross domestic product for the fourth quarter. That period included the government shutdown and holiday shopping season. GDP grew at an impressive 4.1% annual pace in the third quarter, so investors will be watching to see if that trend continued for the remainder of the year. There are signs that bond investors may be nervous about the economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen to 2.73% -- its lowest level since late November. Bonds have outperformed stocks so far this year. And that usually happens when investors are worried and seeking to put money in less risky assets. Related: Jack Lew: U.S. could grow by 3% this year Investors will also get new home sales figures on Monday and the Case-Schiller home price index on Tuesday. And after a season of so-so holiday sales, the consumer will be in focus, with reports on consumer confidence and personal income out Tuesday and Friday, respectively. State of the Union? More like state of the economy: President Obama will give his State of the Union address Tuesday night. While it's unlikely to move the markets, investors will be listening for any major policy announcements on Obamacare, energy and the many economic problems facing the middle class.

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